Image: NASA Earth Observatory
The character of El Nino and La Nina events affects the nature of remote teleconnected responses, and has implications for drought and flooding in arid regions. Previous studies suggest that greenhouse warming may lead to more frequent 'Central Pacific' type El Nino events, but the robustness of this result is unknown. The CESM Last Millennium Ensemble is used to assess which external forcing factors have the strongest impact on ENSO diversity, and results are projected into the 21st century using the Large Ensemble. Comparisons with single-forcing experiments with the CMIP models are also performed, to see how results change in a multi-model framework.
S. Stevenson, A. Capotondi, B. Otto-Bliesner, J. Fasullo